The most common question I get asked these days is "What is going to happen with the real estate market?"
You might put the question up there with "When is winter going to be over?" or "When will my RRSP statement stop making me cry?".
The truth is, no one really knows. If someone did, they'd be very rich and very lucky.
But I do love to hear everyone's opinion. I'm collecting these predictions on my poll to the right. Email me if you want to put money on it as I'm always up for a good bet. We'll call it the Real Estate Pool.
Although we don't know exactly what is going to happen, I'm going to share my view on the market, as well as things to consider when you read the news reports.
At the end of my blog I've also included excerpts from major real estate organizations and associations if you really want to dive in to the muck.
Real Estate is Local
The majority of what you are reading out there (and in the clips below) is based primarily on national, provincial and city-wide numbers.
Contrast what is happening in the GTA compared to Vancouver and it's a totally different picture. Prices in the west were incredibly over-inflated and now they have a harder fall. It's even different from Rosedale to the Beach.
Lumped into those stats are various types of homes; condos, the burbs, and large detached homes. There is no accouting for the unique nature of each of those markets.
The market on a wider scope can seem daunting, especially when you blend it all together and look from 20,000 feet.
So unless you own homes of every shape and in every part of the country, read on...
Don't Trust the Local Stats Either
You can't take local monthly stats for one MLS sector literally (i.e. E02, C09) as average home prices can sometimes be based on just a handful of sales.
If a home sold for $1M in an area that typically has homes in the $750,000 range, the average price will be pulled up and vice versa.
I've found the best measure of what is happening in the market is to talk to agents as they are the ones who know the history, the activity and the pricing strategies the best.
In the Beach for example, we're seeing about a 7-8% drop since the peak months of 2008 but we don't expect to see much more of a drop this year, if any.
Supply and Price Range
Supply and demand are playing a huge role in countering some of the media predictions. In some areas, we are still seeing multiple offers for homes because they are the only decent property in a particular price range.
Winter Blahs
The recent stats are based on months that are traditionally slow. The winter season is also when sellers are more negotiable as listings in this market usually have a different motivation for a sale (relocoation, purchase of another property etc.).
The typical pattern of listing and shopping in months other than the dead of winter are coming back now that we are in a more balanced market.
The Spring Market
I'm predicting a rush of activity this spring. As per my comments about seasonality, people who have been thinking of selling (but didn't have to before) will be bringing their homes out on the market which will be a nice boost for inventory.
There is a pent up demand of buyers...those who were looking back the in fall but wanted to wait and see, either because of their own circumstances or to see the market drop a bit before they jumped in.
Plus, there is a new influx of buyers who are waking up to the opportunities out there.
I personally just bought a home that had been on the market for 70 days and got it for nearly a $100,000 under its original list price.
Final Preductions on the Market...
My final answer? It depends.
This is not a scapegoat answer, it's the truth. It depends where you are looking and what you are looking for.
Thinking of Selling?
If you are thinking of selling, CALL ME NOW. I have so many buyers (and other agents) who are looking but the low inventory of listings on the market is limiting their search.
I am literally in the process of contacting clients to ask them if they want to sell, knowing their house is perfect for someone who is searching.
There are also a lot of sellers dipping their toes in the water to test things out so keep in mind that the perfect home may not even be on MLS. I have a lot of clients who are listing their homes exclusively first before going on the market formally.
Thinking of Buying?
To wrap up the most common question for buyers, "Should I wait for the market to drop more before I buy?". If you know when the market will drop more, then by all means let me know when you think that is happening and we can find a home.
Sure, there is a possibility that prices may drop more but you may find yourself looking at higher interest rates in tandem. You may also find yourself in competition with other buyers.
My biggest testimonial to my view that there is great value right now is the fact that we recently sold our house and bought our next family home, plus we are about to buy another.
Thinking of doing both?
As I said in a previous blog, now is a great time to trade up as it costs you less in a down turning market than the peak market of the past.
Call me today so we can talk specifics and figure out the timing that works best for you.
Cheers,
Mark
416.728.2499
MARKET REPORT SNAPSHOTS:
Royal LePage
"Nationally, average house prices are forecast to dip by 3.0 per cent from last year to $295,000, while transactions are projected to fall to 416,000 (–3.5 %) unit sales in 2009. In spite of this cooling trend on a national level, price and activity gains are anticipated in some provinces."
Full Royal LePage Forecast
RE/MAX
"By year-end 2009, unit sales should match 2008 levels, while average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000."
Full RE/MAX Forecast
Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation
"Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)1, are expected to decline 14.6 per cent during 2009 to 370,500 units. In 2010 the level of MLS® sales is expected to increase by 9.3 per cent to 405,000 units. The average MLS® price is also expected to decrease over the course of 2009. Average prices are forecast to be $287,900 for 2009, a decline of 5.2 per cent, while 2010 will see little change from 2009 average prices."
Full CMHC Forecast
Canadian Real Estate Association
Prices are forecast to stabilize in 2010, with annual price increases of one per cent or less in five provinces. The weighted national MLS® average price is forecast to decline 6.4 per cent in 2009, and hold steady in 2010.
Full CREA Forecast
Realtor.ca (formerly MLS.ca)
"The beginnings of a Canadian economic recession and a dramatic downturn in consumer confidence late last year means that the housing market is facing significant headwinds in 2009," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "Sales activity dropped sharply and price declines accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2008. The consensus economic forecast calls for an economic rebound in the second half of 2009, so an improvement in housing market trends is likely to wait until next year."
Full Realtor.ca Forecast
Toronto Real Estate Board
"It should be noted that the GTA housing market has followed the broader economic slowdown, but was not a cause of the downturn. Home prices remained affordable throughout the new millennium. The average family can still qualify for a mortgage on the average priced home. This remains the case today. Given that we are not facing an early-1990s-style affordability crisis, the rebound in the housing market will likely be quick once economic recovery takes hold."
Full TREB Market Report
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Markets & Mortgages
Check out below for the Toronto Real Estate MarketWatch Report and the current prime rate.
If you want more information on any area or to find out the current value of your home, contact me today....416.728.2499 or mark@markrichards.ca.
PRIME RATE
Prime rate is now at an unbelievable 2.5% at Bank of Montreal and other banks are following suit.
What does this mean for your bottom line?
Every $100,000 of a mortgage will only cost you $488.78 per month based on the Bank of Montreal posted 5 year closed variable rate of 3.3% over a 25 year amortization.
Now is one of the chepest times in recent real estate history to buy or trade up.
Contact Peter Majthenyi today at 416.410.3298 or peter@mymortgageplanner.ca to see how he can help you.
TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD MARKETWATCH -FEBRUARY 2009
Check out neighbourhoods in the GTA to find out average prices and sales activity for the past month:
Toronto Real Estate Market Watch
TORONTO - Thursday, March 5, 2009 -
Toronto Real Estate Board Members reported 4,120 sales in February 2009 compared to 6,015 sales recorded in February 2008. The average home price was $361,305 last month compared to $382,048 during the same month last year.
“A considerable number of transactions continued to take place in February 2009. Motivated buyers and sellers, who were aware that market conditions changed over the past few months, were able to negotiate transactions acceptable to both parties,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill.
On a month-over-month basis, sales and average price were above January levels of 2,670 and $343,632 respectively. The housing market is seasonal. Traditionally, in the first half of every year, sales and average price climb to their highest levels in late spring before trending lower from July onward.
“While the economic downturn has had an impact, the GTA housing market is resting on a solid foundation. Current home prices and mortgage rates suggest that GTA homes have become more affordable on average,” according to Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “A greater number of home buyers could take advantage of this affordability once their positioning in the economy becomes more certain.”
Typically the spring real estate market tends to experience more activity and with the Canadian economy experiencing a period of low mortgage rates and strong immigration, this trend could continue. According to Statistics Canada, Canada welcomed 247,202 permanent residents in 2008, 70,000 more than in 1998, and well within the government’s planned range of 240,000 to 265,000 new permanent residents for 2009.
The TREB President pointed out that Greater Toronto REALTORS® are an integral part of the real estate transaction process. “TREB Members are uniquely positioned to help home buyers and sellers adapt to changing market conditions,” added Ms. O’Neill. “In addition, TREB continues to advocate public policies that do not threaten affordability but support home ownership in the GTA such as lower taxation and less regulation.”
If you want more information on any area or to find out the current value of your home, contact me today....416.728.2499 or mark@markrichards.ca.
PRIME RATE
Prime rate is now at an unbelievable 2.5% at Bank of Montreal and other banks are following suit.
What does this mean for your bottom line?
Every $100,000 of a mortgage will only cost you $488.78 per month based on the Bank of Montreal posted 5 year closed variable rate of 3.3% over a 25 year amortization.
Now is one of the chepest times in recent real estate history to buy or trade up.
Contact Peter Majthenyi today at 416.410.3298 or peter@mymortgageplanner.ca to see how he can help you.
TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD MARKETWATCH -FEBRUARY 2009
Check out neighbourhoods in the GTA to find out average prices and sales activity for the past month:
Toronto Real Estate Market Watch
TORONTO - Thursday, March 5, 2009 -
Toronto Real Estate Board Members reported 4,120 sales in February 2009 compared to 6,015 sales recorded in February 2008. The average home price was $361,305 last month compared to $382,048 during the same month last year.
“A considerable number of transactions continued to take place in February 2009. Motivated buyers and sellers, who were aware that market conditions changed over the past few months, were able to negotiate transactions acceptable to both parties,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill.
On a month-over-month basis, sales and average price were above January levels of 2,670 and $343,632 respectively. The housing market is seasonal. Traditionally, in the first half of every year, sales and average price climb to their highest levels in late spring before trending lower from July onward.
“While the economic downturn has had an impact, the GTA housing market is resting on a solid foundation. Current home prices and mortgage rates suggest that GTA homes have become more affordable on average,” according to Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “A greater number of home buyers could take advantage of this affordability once their positioning in the economy becomes more certain.”
Typically the spring real estate market tends to experience more activity and with the Canadian economy experiencing a period of low mortgage rates and strong immigration, this trend could continue. According to Statistics Canada, Canada welcomed 247,202 permanent residents in 2008, 70,000 more than in 1998, and well within the government’s planned range of 240,000 to 265,000 new permanent residents for 2009.
The TREB President pointed out that Greater Toronto REALTORS® are an integral part of the real estate transaction process. “TREB Members are uniquely positioned to help home buyers and sellers adapt to changing market conditions,” added Ms. O’Neill. “In addition, TREB continues to advocate public policies that do not threaten affordability but support home ownership in the GTA such as lower taxation and less regulation.”
Globe & Mail - Optimism returning to housing market, RBC survey finds
Optimism returning to housing market, RBC survey finds
by VIRGINIA GALT
Globe and Mail Update
March 4, 2009 at 4:04 PM EST
Confidence appears to be seeping back into the housing market, with young Canadians the most optimistic that now is a good time to buy, according to the Royal Bank of Canada's annual homeownership survey.
Thirty-year-old David Morris, who owns a condominium in downtown Vancouver, is among those actively planning to purchase a home. He's looking to sell his condo and trade up to a house in Vancouver's trendy Kitsilano or North Shore districts – a move that would have been out of his reach in the overheated real estate market of recent years.
Falling prices, low interest rates – and the fact that he is getting married at the end of this year – have factored into Mr. Morris' decision to buy.
“We have made the decision to move forward. It's not a situation where we're going to force it, but if we can find the right house for the right price, we have made the decision to get serious about it,” said Mr. Morris, a commercial real estate broker.
“From a buyer's perspective, it's encouraging …Now is a good time to come in and find a home that you love, that isn't going to break the bank.”
In a survey of 2,026 Canadian consumers, conducted in the second week of January, the Royal Bank found that 65 per cent of respondents believe it is a buyers' market now.
Of those surveyed, 9 per cent said it is “very likely” they will purchase a home or condominium in 2009 or 2010, and another 18 per cent rated the prospect of purchasing a new home as “somewhat” likely.
“Additionally, almost half indicate it makes sense to buy a home now versus waiting until next year.”
Young adults and renters are most likely to spark an upsurge in home sales, Royal Bank said in releasing its survey results.
“In the under-35 group, 48 per cent said they plan to buy, which is up sharply from 36 per cent last year. Renters also appear to be saying they are tired of paying someone else's mortgage payment, with 38 per cent planning to become homeowners in the next two years.”
Although this optimism is not reflected in the most recent sales statistics – the volume of sales in the Toronto area, for instance, was down 47 per cent year-over-year in January – Royal Bank predicts that lower prices will lure a growing percentage of Canadians back into the housing market in the next two years.
Toronto real estate agent Geon van der Wyst noted that consumers do not always follow through on their intentions – although it is encouraging that more Canadians appear to be thinking about buying homes.
“Intention is the step prior to making an educated decision… and I'm sure a lot of those people with intentions will move forward with purchases, it's just a matter of finding the right time,” Mr. van der Wyst said.
Karen Leggett, the Royal Bank's head of home equity financing, said low mortgage rates “and favourable housing prices are influencing home purchase intentions this year and may be the reason why more Canadians are poised to purchase over the next two years.”
Ms. Leggett said the poll, conducted for the Royal Bank by Ipsos Reid, found that the vast majority of Canadians believe that the purchase of a home is a good investment. “The current economic environment does not appear to have dampened Canadians' overall confidence in the housing market,” she said.
Mr. van der Wyst said there are good deals to be had, from the buyers' standpoint. However, he added, many prospective buyers – particularly first-time buyers – are still uncertain about the best time to plunge into the market.
“We tend to hand-hold these first time-buyers, nervous first-time buyers, especially around here where they know the prices are starting to dip – and who knows where they will continue to dip before the recovery starts?”
Mr. van der Wyst said that, especially in the current economic environment, he screens prospective buyers carefully before taking them to look at properties. He noted that the banks are also “pretty stringent” in qualifying consumers for mortgages.
“Interest rates are at historic lows and borrowing money is very, very affordable. If you have steady employment and you have some financial responsibility along with a good interest rate, now is a really, really good time to purchase a property,” said Mr. van der Wyst, an agent with Royal LePage.
“At this time, employment stability is very important. It would be really unfortunate to see someone lose their job just as they were about to close on a property,” he said.
A number of leading Canadian economists have observed that Canada's rising unemployment rate has eroded consumer confidence, and other recent housing forecasts have been less upbeat than the Royal Bank survey.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. projects that, in spite of falling prices, the volume of existing home sales is expected to drop by 14.6 per cent in 2009, and then rise by 9.3 per cent in 2010.
Average home prices are forecast to fall 5.2 per cent to $287,900 in 2009. Next year, prices are expected to remain flat, according to the federal housing agency's forecast.
Ms. Leggett said Royal Bank is not forecasting “a huge housing rebound, by any stretch,” but there are reasons for cautious optimism that the market will start to recover later this year and next year.
Following the overheated market and bidding wars of the past few years, housing is once again becoming more affordable and there are good buying opportunities for consumers “who have good solid certitude around their job prospects and have the financial picture to be able to get into the market,” Ms. Leggett said.
“Buying intentions are one thing. Whether they translate into actual purchases, obviously time will tell,” she said. “But, anecdotally, we are hearing that there is heightened activity …and interest in the marketplace overall.”
by VIRGINIA GALT
Globe and Mail Update
March 4, 2009 at 4:04 PM EST
Confidence appears to be seeping back into the housing market, with young Canadians the most optimistic that now is a good time to buy, according to the Royal Bank of Canada's annual homeownership survey.
Thirty-year-old David Morris, who owns a condominium in downtown Vancouver, is among those actively planning to purchase a home. He's looking to sell his condo and trade up to a house in Vancouver's trendy Kitsilano or North Shore districts – a move that would have been out of his reach in the overheated real estate market of recent years.
Falling prices, low interest rates – and the fact that he is getting married at the end of this year – have factored into Mr. Morris' decision to buy.
“We have made the decision to move forward. It's not a situation where we're going to force it, but if we can find the right house for the right price, we have made the decision to get serious about it,” said Mr. Morris, a commercial real estate broker.
“From a buyer's perspective, it's encouraging …Now is a good time to come in and find a home that you love, that isn't going to break the bank.”
In a survey of 2,026 Canadian consumers, conducted in the second week of January, the Royal Bank found that 65 per cent of respondents believe it is a buyers' market now.
Of those surveyed, 9 per cent said it is “very likely” they will purchase a home or condominium in 2009 or 2010, and another 18 per cent rated the prospect of purchasing a new home as “somewhat” likely.
“Additionally, almost half indicate it makes sense to buy a home now versus waiting until next year.”
Young adults and renters are most likely to spark an upsurge in home sales, Royal Bank said in releasing its survey results.
“In the under-35 group, 48 per cent said they plan to buy, which is up sharply from 36 per cent last year. Renters also appear to be saying they are tired of paying someone else's mortgage payment, with 38 per cent planning to become homeowners in the next two years.”
Although this optimism is not reflected in the most recent sales statistics – the volume of sales in the Toronto area, for instance, was down 47 per cent year-over-year in January – Royal Bank predicts that lower prices will lure a growing percentage of Canadians back into the housing market in the next two years.
Toronto real estate agent Geon van der Wyst noted that consumers do not always follow through on their intentions – although it is encouraging that more Canadians appear to be thinking about buying homes.
“Intention is the step prior to making an educated decision… and I'm sure a lot of those people with intentions will move forward with purchases, it's just a matter of finding the right time,” Mr. van der Wyst said.
Karen Leggett, the Royal Bank's head of home equity financing, said low mortgage rates “and favourable housing prices are influencing home purchase intentions this year and may be the reason why more Canadians are poised to purchase over the next two years.”
Ms. Leggett said the poll, conducted for the Royal Bank by Ipsos Reid, found that the vast majority of Canadians believe that the purchase of a home is a good investment. “The current economic environment does not appear to have dampened Canadians' overall confidence in the housing market,” she said.
Mr. van der Wyst said there are good deals to be had, from the buyers' standpoint. However, he added, many prospective buyers – particularly first-time buyers – are still uncertain about the best time to plunge into the market.
“We tend to hand-hold these first time-buyers, nervous first-time buyers, especially around here where they know the prices are starting to dip – and who knows where they will continue to dip before the recovery starts?”
Mr. van der Wyst said that, especially in the current economic environment, he screens prospective buyers carefully before taking them to look at properties. He noted that the banks are also “pretty stringent” in qualifying consumers for mortgages.
“Interest rates are at historic lows and borrowing money is very, very affordable. If you have steady employment and you have some financial responsibility along with a good interest rate, now is a really, really good time to purchase a property,” said Mr. van der Wyst, an agent with Royal LePage.
“At this time, employment stability is very important. It would be really unfortunate to see someone lose their job just as they were about to close on a property,” he said.
A number of leading Canadian economists have observed that Canada's rising unemployment rate has eroded consumer confidence, and other recent housing forecasts have been less upbeat than the Royal Bank survey.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. projects that, in spite of falling prices, the volume of existing home sales is expected to drop by 14.6 per cent in 2009, and then rise by 9.3 per cent in 2010.
Average home prices are forecast to fall 5.2 per cent to $287,900 in 2009. Next year, prices are expected to remain flat, according to the federal housing agency's forecast.
Ms. Leggett said Royal Bank is not forecasting “a huge housing rebound, by any stretch,” but there are reasons for cautious optimism that the market will start to recover later this year and next year.
Following the overheated market and bidding wars of the past few years, housing is once again becoming more affordable and there are good buying opportunities for consumers “who have good solid certitude around their job prospects and have the financial picture to be able to get into the market,” Ms. Leggett said.
“Buying intentions are one thing. Whether they translate into actual purchases, obviously time will tell,” she said. “But, anecdotally, we are hearing that there is heightened activity …and interest in the marketplace overall.”
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
What's ahead for 2009...
Happy new year? I think so.
As someone who tends to look at the brighter side of life, I'm not so blindly optomistic that I deny the challenges the year ahead presents.
But I do have some predictions to share and some suggestions for the challenges.
When will the market bottom out?
Of course, this is everyone's biggest question. Here's the funny thing...by the time anyone has the information to call that the market has bottomed out, it's already on the rise, and usually so are interest rates.
Not to mention the crowd behind you that's also been waiting for it to bottom out. We need to stop thinking in these terms and instead look at value.
A big market correction has already happened and for the most part, sellers have adjusted to the current market. I think we may still see a few percentage points down in the coming months but mortgage rates may adjust the opposite way making it a wash in terms of the bottom line.
The value out there right now is great. I've had many buyers get great deals and encourage people to focus on overall value and finding the right home.
Today
Right now we are seeing some great opportunities:
- Mortgage rates are very low - i.e. TD Canada Trust posted variable closed rate of 4.3% and open rate of 4.5%.
- There are still a lot of highly motivated sellers out there who have already bought.
- It costs less to trade up in a down-turning market than a upward moving one.
- Inventory is good, people are adjusting to today's market and are open to negotaition.
Condos
These are good times if you are looking to get into a condo and/or new development. The oversupply and desperate developers are offering all kinds of incentives. Free parking, and evern free cars! But this is one area I would hold off on for a while to let their desperation set in a bit more.
Activity
The core GTA market should stay fairly stable with typical seasonality. I'm predicting some nice activity in the spring with some pent-up demand from buyers who have been holding their breath for the past few months. Personally I have been crazy busy with buyers as have some colleagues of mine so so we're starting to see this.
Motivation
Remember, financials are not the only reason why people buy and sell. Take me for example. I'm a sadistic person who loves to renovate over and over. Or there are clients who can now afford to get into the neighbourhoods they've always wanted to live in.
Relocations will also be up as companies shuffle the deck and our workforce travels for more opportunities. Whatever the reason, people are still motivated to move even in a shifting market.
Getting Creative
A really great way to trade up to a bigger home or to one in a better neighbourhood is to look for one where you can rent out a portion of the home for a while. If you already have enough equity or funds to put your down payment on a higher value home this is a great way to step up and sometimes even reduce your monthly costs.
My wife and I did this many years ago. Our monthly costs were only slightly higher when we made the move from a 2 bedroom, 650 sq. ft. condo north of the Beach to a detached bungalow just steps from Queen St. with a basement rental. It was a great way for us to 'trade up' and get in the area we wanted.
First-Time Buyers
Remember, a big correction has already happened and you can get amazing values combined with unbelievably low interest rates, not to mention good inventory. Don't wait for the herd to drive prices back up again and compete for the home you want.
Current Home Owners
For current home owners, everything is relative. You may sell for less but you'll also buy for less and the cost to move up to that home you've been dreaming of won't cost as much.
Sellers
Be patient and make sure you adjust to the market conditions. I know as well as anyone how frustrating it can be to have your house on the market for as long as it has been taking.
My daughter keeps wondering where all her christmas presents go when we have showings and my wife keeps telling me she is going on a cleaning strike for two months once the house sells.
We'll all get a little better.
The interesting thing about good times is that it's easy to stay in cruise control and still make progress maintaining the status quo.
In the real estate market, it meant that a lot of people jumped into the industry and were able to do a lot of business just by being order takers and sticking 'for sale' signs on your lawn. (Just watch how registrations drop and how many agents actually renew in the summer when fees are due.)
Now is when the good agents shine. Knowing and sharing market knowledge, providing value-add services, being strategic in everything you do, and investing time in life-long relationships. And the good ones will just get better.
This applies to every industry. For the most part, the cream rises to the top and a lot of people will work harder to stay there.
Overall it's an opportunity for clients to get what they deserve and more. And an opportunity for all of us to get better ourselves.
My wife says I'm still not perfect yet so I guess I have some work to do myself :)
Cheers and all the best for 2009,
Mark
As someone who tends to look at the brighter side of life, I'm not so blindly optomistic that I deny the challenges the year ahead presents.
But I do have some predictions to share and some suggestions for the challenges.
When will the market bottom out?
Of course, this is everyone's biggest question. Here's the funny thing...by the time anyone has the information to call that the market has bottomed out, it's already on the rise, and usually so are interest rates.
Not to mention the crowd behind you that's also been waiting for it to bottom out. We need to stop thinking in these terms and instead look at value.
A big market correction has already happened and for the most part, sellers have adjusted to the current market. I think we may still see a few percentage points down in the coming months but mortgage rates may adjust the opposite way making it a wash in terms of the bottom line.
The value out there right now is great. I've had many buyers get great deals and encourage people to focus on overall value and finding the right home.
Today
Right now we are seeing some great opportunities:
- Mortgage rates are very low - i.e. TD Canada Trust posted variable closed rate of 4.3% and open rate of 4.5%.
- There are still a lot of highly motivated sellers out there who have already bought.
- It costs less to trade up in a down-turning market than a upward moving one.
- Inventory is good, people are adjusting to today's market and are open to negotaition.
Condos
These are good times if you are looking to get into a condo and/or new development. The oversupply and desperate developers are offering all kinds of incentives. Free parking, and evern free cars! But this is one area I would hold off on for a while to let their desperation set in a bit more.
Activity
The core GTA market should stay fairly stable with typical seasonality. I'm predicting some nice activity in the spring with some pent-up demand from buyers who have been holding their breath for the past few months. Personally I have been crazy busy with buyers as have some colleagues of mine so so we're starting to see this.
Motivation
Remember, financials are not the only reason why people buy and sell. Take me for example. I'm a sadistic person who loves to renovate over and over. Or there are clients who can now afford to get into the neighbourhoods they've always wanted to live in.
Relocations will also be up as companies shuffle the deck and our workforce travels for more opportunities. Whatever the reason, people are still motivated to move even in a shifting market.
Getting Creative
A really great way to trade up to a bigger home or to one in a better neighbourhood is to look for one where you can rent out a portion of the home for a while. If you already have enough equity or funds to put your down payment on a higher value home this is a great way to step up and sometimes even reduce your monthly costs.
My wife and I did this many years ago. Our monthly costs were only slightly higher when we made the move from a 2 bedroom, 650 sq. ft. condo north of the Beach to a detached bungalow just steps from Queen St. with a basement rental. It was a great way for us to 'trade up' and get in the area we wanted.
First-Time Buyers
Remember, a big correction has already happened and you can get amazing values combined with unbelievably low interest rates, not to mention good inventory. Don't wait for the herd to drive prices back up again and compete for the home you want.
Current Home Owners
For current home owners, everything is relative. You may sell for less but you'll also buy for less and the cost to move up to that home you've been dreaming of won't cost as much.
Sellers
Be patient and make sure you adjust to the market conditions. I know as well as anyone how frustrating it can be to have your house on the market for as long as it has been taking.
My daughter keeps wondering where all her christmas presents go when we have showings and my wife keeps telling me she is going on a cleaning strike for two months once the house sells.
We'll all get a little better.
The interesting thing about good times is that it's easy to stay in cruise control and still make progress maintaining the status quo.
In the real estate market, it meant that a lot of people jumped into the industry and were able to do a lot of business just by being order takers and sticking 'for sale' signs on your lawn. (Just watch how registrations drop and how many agents actually renew in the summer when fees are due.)
Now is when the good agents shine. Knowing and sharing market knowledge, providing value-add services, being strategic in everything you do, and investing time in life-long relationships. And the good ones will just get better.
This applies to every industry. For the most part, the cream rises to the top and a lot of people will work harder to stay there.
Overall it's an opportunity for clients to get what they deserve and more. And an opportunity for all of us to get better ourselves.
My wife says I'm still not perfect yet so I guess I have some work to do myself :)
Cheers and all the best for 2009,
Mark
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Beating the Winter Blahs
Anyone feeling the winter blahs yet?
After endless shovleing and scraping ice off everything, I know I can't be alone in wondering why I don't live in the Caribbean.
Here are a few quick and easy ideas to do inside and out of the house to lift your spirits.
Flowers
Your home may look like the Grinch came by the time you take down the tree and the decorations. Replace them with fresh flowers - preferably ones that remind you of spring, like tulips.
Hit the Gym
I know, you probably have this on your list anyway...but get the seratonin levels going. Because this blog is rated 'G', I won't get into details, but there are other physical activities you could be doing on a cold winters night for an even better effect...make the most of it!
Hot Yoga
It's true, I've done hot yoga. If you just want to feel the hot air on your skin and actually sweat instead of shiver from your environment, this is the activity for you. Not to mention the toxins from the holidays that you can get rid of at the same time! If you close your eyes and meditate you can actually pretend you are on a beach and someone is about to bring you a margarita any moment.
Get Out of the House
It's easy to take one look outside and turn back. Put your woolies on and get out to a museum, a bowling alley, and indoor driving range or tobogganing. Skating at Harbourfront Center is a blast, and hit the slopes for a great day of skiing or snowboarding. We're Canadian after all.
Tackle a Home Improvement Project
Maybe it's painting a room, or refinishing a lonely piece of furniture. Whatever your list includes, tackle it now.
Sign up for a Class
Is there something you've always wanted to learn? Kickboxing, art, music, cooking...whatever your hidden passion is, sign up for a regular class so you have something to get out to every week and connect with new people.
Help Others
If you're really feeling sorry for yourself, pull up your bootstraps and help someone in need. Nothing will lift your spirits faster. Shelters and food banks are especially in need this time of year. Call and volunteer or start your own campaign to collect food and blankets.
If none of these things work, just think of the excitement that buying a new home will bring :)
Cheers,
Mark
After endless shovleing and scraping ice off everything, I know I can't be alone in wondering why I don't live in the Caribbean.
Here are a few quick and easy ideas to do inside and out of the house to lift your spirits.
Flowers
Your home may look like the Grinch came by the time you take down the tree and the decorations. Replace them with fresh flowers - preferably ones that remind you of spring, like tulips.
Hit the Gym
I know, you probably have this on your list anyway...but get the seratonin levels going. Because this blog is rated 'G', I won't get into details, but there are other physical activities you could be doing on a cold winters night for an even better effect...make the most of it!
Hot Yoga
It's true, I've done hot yoga. If you just want to feel the hot air on your skin and actually sweat instead of shiver from your environment, this is the activity for you. Not to mention the toxins from the holidays that you can get rid of at the same time! If you close your eyes and meditate you can actually pretend you are on a beach and someone is about to bring you a margarita any moment.
Get Out of the House
It's easy to take one look outside and turn back. Put your woolies on and get out to a museum, a bowling alley, and indoor driving range or tobogganing. Skating at Harbourfront Center is a blast, and hit the slopes for a great day of skiing or snowboarding. We're Canadian after all.
Tackle a Home Improvement Project
Maybe it's painting a room, or refinishing a lonely piece of furniture. Whatever your list includes, tackle it now.
Sign up for a Class
Is there something you've always wanted to learn? Kickboxing, art, music, cooking...whatever your hidden passion is, sign up for a regular class so you have something to get out to every week and connect with new people.
Help Others
If you're really feeling sorry for yourself, pull up your bootstraps and help someone in need. Nothing will lift your spirits faster. Shelters and food banks are especially in need this time of year. Call and volunteer or start your own campaign to collect food and blankets.
If none of these things work, just think of the excitement that buying a new home will bring :)
Cheers,
Mark
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
The Best Time of the Year
Despite the economy, I'm looking forward to the holidays. I hope you are too.
If you're like me, you might be getting a little tired of all the negativity in the media. This month I'm going to cut through that negativity and show you something positive...
The real estate market.
Here's why...
#1 - It costs you LESS to trade up in this market.
For those of you who currently own and are considering a move, you may be getting a lot of advice that you shouldn't trade up now because you'll take too much of a hit in the transaction as your home has dropped too much in value.
If you're like me, you might be getting a little tired of all the negativity in the media. This month I'm going to cut through that negativity and show you something positive...
The real estate market.
Here's why...
#1 - It costs you LESS to trade up in this market.
For those of you who currently own and are considering a move, you may be getting a lot of advice that you shouldn't trade up now because you'll take too much of a hit in the transaction as your home has dropped too much in value.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Everything in the market is relative, and it's actually the best time to move up.
Let's compare if you sold and bought six months ago vs. selling and buying today in a market that has dropped approx. 10%.
*May 2008, peak average price over the past two years vs. current stats for November 2008 for the City of Toronto.
Scenario 1 - Peak Market at 10% higher than today.
Sale Price: $543,000 Purchase Price: $760,000
Difference: $217,000
Scenario 2 - Same House, Depressed Market 10% lower than peak.
Sale Price: $488,000, Purchase Price: $683,000
Difference: $195,000
The difference to move to a new home costs you LESS in a downward turning market than in a peak market.
#2 - There is a small window of amazing opportunity in the market shift.
There are a lot of people who bought a few months ago before their home had sold. In the peak market that was a safe strategy. But now you have homeowners who HAVE to sell because they are near or past their close date and are carrying two mortgages.
This situation will not exist in the spring market because people will no longer be purchasing before they sell.
There is a lot of opportunity to get a great deal and negotiate with vendors who have no choice but to sell right now and this window will only exist for a couple of months.
#3 - Mortgage rates are incredible right now.
At the peak of the market in May, the prime rate was hanging around 4.75%. Now, the rate has just dropped to an amazing 3.5%. The posted 5 Year Closed rate for TD Canada Trust is only prime + 0.60%
Let's take a $300,000 mortgage as an example.
At the peak market, with a 25 year amortization, your payment at a rate of 5.35% would be $1,805.07 per month with a total interest cost of $241,484.
At today's market rate, your monthly payment would be $1,594.37 at a rate of 4.1% with a total interest cost of only $178,290.
Your total interest cost would be reduced by 7% over the course of 5-years.
#4 - Homes are now within reach for first-time home buyers.
The cumulative affect of lower home prices and great mortgage rates make this an amazing time for first-time home buyers.
Not to mention the higher inventory and less competition for great homes.
A 10% drop in prices translates to a 10% lower mortgage amount, so a monthly payment would be $159.44 less than in the peak market.
If you are a first-time home buyer, the real estate market is on your side for once. This is the time to make your move.
There are other considerations to think about in this market...
How can I sell my home in this market?
Pricing strategy has never been so critical.
If you are buying another home, you need to stop focusing on the magic number you could have gotten back in May. Those days are gone. Realize that you are making up for it on your buy-side.
First, your home has to be priced at value and that requires a very thorough analysis of recently sold homes and available listings within the past week and days, not just the past months.
In a changing market, historical numbers can mean nothing when pricing a home for sale today. And you have to open to staying ahead of the market activity and adjust as necessary.
Pricing above value because you think you want to leave room for negotiation is not an option. Better to turn down 3 offers than get none at all because no one will even look at an overpriced house in this market.
Other strategies to follow...
If you are considering a move in this market, I'm advising clients to follow these strategies:
1. Sell your home first before you buy, or make your offer conditional on the sale of your home. Unless of course you are fine with two mortgages.
2. Make sure your home shows incredibly well and consider having an inspection done before you put it on the market just as you would in a peak market. Do not give buyers any excuse to put in a low-ball offer or negotiate based on an inspection after their original offer.
3. If possible for both parties, try to stretch out your close date so you have plenty of time to shop for your new home.
4. Be prepared to buy just as you would in a peak market. Get your financing approved BEFORE you look at homes or put in an offer. Be ready to put a certified deposit with your offer. Even though the market has slowed down, there are still other buyers who may be looking for the same home.
5. Play it smart. The reality is that we are in tough economic times. Live within your means and consider your complete financial picture when you invest in real estate. At the end of the day, it's a solid investment that for most of us means a roof over our heads, not a statement in the mail.
The Irony
Think of the phenomenon of 'herd mentality'. We are really causing our own grief in some ways here.
Ironically, when prices are at their highest and there is the most competition for a home, people can't wait to buy and will throw thousands of dollars over the asking price just to get a home.
Now, when the market is in the favour of buyers and there is tremendous value and selection out there AND it actually costs less to trade up for current homeowners, everyone is holding their breath.
Another irony is that a lot of buyers are waiting for the market to bottom out. But no one has a crystal ball and we can't predict when that will be.
By the time it's announced that the market has bottomed out, it's already on it's way up again and all the pent up buyers who were holding off for a better deal are now in competition with each other, driving prices up.
In Summary...
I am personally excited about this market.
My clients get the opportunity to:
- Move to a better home for less
- Get amazing deals given the unique conditions of the current shift
- Take advantage of incredible financing rates
- Realize their goal of home ownership if they are first-time home buyers
I hope you forward this on to as many people as you can, if for no other reason than my determination to dispell the myths and negativity in the media that's causing a lot of people to miss out.
To find out what opportunities are in the real estate market for you, and to find out about some amazing deals, contact me today.
And if anyone tells you this is a bad time in the real estate market, tell them to call me directly :)
Best wishes for the holiday season!
Cheers,
Mark
416.728.2499 - info@markrichards.ca
Monday, December 8, 2008
Ideas for the Gift Challenged
For those of you who may need a bit of inspiration and ideas for the holiday gift giving season, we've put together a list that may just work for you.
Framed Pictures
We rarely do this for ourselves, so how great is it when someone gives you a blown-up framed photo of you, your friends or family?
It seems like it takes some time but one evening picking out favorites, a quick online print order and in-store pick up to grab some frames and you're done.
Cost? $10-30 for a frame, $0.23 - $15 for printing depending on size. Ikea has great frames with mats included starting at $6.99 for a 4x6 size.
In-Name Donations
Considering how many people in the world are less fortunate than us, sometimes the big ticket items don't sit quite right. There are some great ways to make a donation in someone's name - from donating dollars, to choosing specific items to donate.
You can donate a mosquito net through the Red Cross for just $7 and save a child from malaria.
The Red Cross - Malaria Bites
Or you can check out Canada Helps - it enables online donations for 83,000 Canadian charities. It allows you to search by interest, city and name to find the one that fits the people on your list.
Canada Helps
Shows
In a city like Toronto, there are so many great shows, concerts and events that the choices are endless.
Don't forget that many afternoon shows can be less than half the cost and it's great to have dinner afterwards instead of before and rushing to an evening show.
We saw We Will Rock You with the in-laws this past summer and we all had a blast. For a family show, you can see Chitty Chitty Bang Bang or The Sound of Music. Tickets for both shows can be purchased online at Mirvish Productions and you can get deals from just $24 a ticket.
Books & Magazines
Who isn't looking for a good page-turner? The best thing of all is they can exchange your choice if they've already read it or if it isn't their cup of tea.
Magazine subscriptions are also a great gift with big impact for not much money. Deals can be had for just $12 a year. Rogers offers it's customers a $1 per month subscription for most of it's magazines - check out Rogers Magazines.
For book ideas check out the following reviews:
Chapters Top Online Bestsellers
Create a Book
If you have a bunch of photos from a vacation or party, or just a lot of photos in general you can create a professional looking book with Blurb. You can get it produced and delivered by Christmas (choose your delivery options carefully!) and books start at just $12.95!
For Those Who Help You
For the postman, the dog walker, the babysitter etc...keep a stack of Starbucks or Tim Hortons gift cards on hand! Who doesn't want to be warmed up with an eggnog latte or a double-double?
Regardless of what you are giving, make a list, check it twice and set aside some time to shop to save yourself from the stress of the holiday season.
Cheers & Happy Holidays!
Mark
Framed Pictures
We rarely do this for ourselves, so how great is it when someone gives you a blown-up framed photo of you, your friends or family?
It seems like it takes some time but one evening picking out favorites, a quick online print order and in-store pick up to grab some frames and you're done.
Cost? $10-30 for a frame, $0.23 - $15 for printing depending on size. Ikea has great frames with mats included starting at $6.99 for a 4x6 size.
In-Name Donations
Considering how many people in the world are less fortunate than us, sometimes the big ticket items don't sit quite right. There are some great ways to make a donation in someone's name - from donating dollars, to choosing specific items to donate.
You can donate a mosquito net through the Red Cross for just $7 and save a child from malaria.
The Red Cross - Malaria Bites
Or you can check out Canada Helps - it enables online donations for 83,000 Canadian charities. It allows you to search by interest, city and name to find the one that fits the people on your list.
Canada Helps
Shows
In a city like Toronto, there are so many great shows, concerts and events that the choices are endless.
Don't forget that many afternoon shows can be less than half the cost and it's great to have dinner afterwards instead of before and rushing to an evening show.
We saw We Will Rock You with the in-laws this past summer and we all had a blast. For a family show, you can see Chitty Chitty Bang Bang or The Sound of Music. Tickets for both shows can be purchased online at Mirvish Productions and you can get deals from just $24 a ticket.
Books & Magazines
Who isn't looking for a good page-turner? The best thing of all is they can exchange your choice if they've already read it or if it isn't their cup of tea.
Magazine subscriptions are also a great gift with big impact for not much money. Deals can be had for just $12 a year. Rogers offers it's customers a $1 per month subscription for most of it's magazines - check out Rogers Magazines.
For book ideas check out the following reviews:
New York Times 10 Best Books of 2008
Chapters Top Online Bestsellers
Create a Book
If you have a bunch of photos from a vacation or party, or just a lot of photos in general you can create a professional looking book with Blurb. You can get it produced and delivered by Christmas (choose your delivery options carefully!) and books start at just $12.95!
For Those Who Help You
For the postman, the dog walker, the babysitter etc...keep a stack of Starbucks or Tim Hortons gift cards on hand! Who doesn't want to be warmed up with an eggnog latte or a double-double?
Regardless of what you are giving, make a list, check it twice and set aside some time to shop to save yourself from the stress of the holiday season.
Cheers & Happy Holidays!
Mark
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