Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Globe & Mail - Optimism returning to housing market, RBC survey finds

Optimism returning to housing market, RBC survey finds
by VIRGINIA GALT
Globe and Mail Update
March 4, 2009 at 4:04 PM EST


Confidence appears to be seeping back into the housing market, with young Canadians the most optimistic that now is a good time to buy, according to the Royal Bank of Canada's annual homeownership survey.

Thirty-year-old David Morris, who owns a condominium in downtown Vancouver, is among those actively planning to purchase a home. He's looking to sell his condo and trade up to a house in Vancouver's trendy Kitsilano or North Shore districts – a move that would have been out of his reach in the overheated real estate market of recent years.

Falling prices, low interest rates – and the fact that he is getting married at the end of this year – have factored into Mr. Morris' decision to buy.

“We have made the decision to move forward. It's not a situation where we're going to force it, but if we can find the right house for the right price, we have made the decision to get serious about it,” said Mr. Morris, a commercial real estate broker.

“From a buyer's perspective, it's encouraging …Now is a good time to come in and find a home that you love, that isn't going to break the bank.”

In a survey of 2,026 Canadian consumers, conducted in the second week of January, the Royal Bank found that 65 per cent of respondents believe it is a buyers' market now.

Of those surveyed, 9 per cent said it is “very likely” they will purchase a home or condominium in 2009 or 2010, and another 18 per cent rated the prospect of purchasing a new home as “somewhat” likely.

“Additionally, almost half indicate it makes sense to buy a home now versus waiting until next year.”

Young adults and renters are most likely to spark an upsurge in home sales, Royal Bank said in releasing its survey results.

“In the under-35 group, 48 per cent said they plan to buy, which is up sharply from 36 per cent last year. Renters also appear to be saying they are tired of paying someone else's mortgage payment, with 38 per cent planning to become homeowners in the next two years.”

Although this optimism is not reflected in the most recent sales statistics – the volume of sales in the Toronto area, for instance, was down 47 per cent year-over-year in January – Royal Bank predicts that lower prices will lure a growing percentage of Canadians back into the housing market in the next two years.

Toronto real estate agent Geon van der Wyst noted that consumers do not always follow through on their intentions – although it is encouraging that more Canadians appear to be thinking about buying homes.

“Intention is the step prior to making an educated decision… and I'm sure a lot of those people with intentions will move forward with purchases, it's just a matter of finding the right time,” Mr. van der Wyst said.

Karen Leggett, the Royal Bank's head of home equity financing, said low mortgage rates “and favourable housing prices are influencing home purchase intentions this year and may be the reason why more Canadians are poised to purchase over the next two years.”

Ms. Leggett said the poll, conducted for the Royal Bank by Ipsos Reid, found that the vast majority of Canadians believe that the purchase of a home is a good investment. “The current economic environment does not appear to have dampened Canadians' overall confidence in the housing market,” she said.

Mr. van der Wyst said there are good deals to be had, from the buyers' standpoint. However, he added, many prospective buyers – particularly first-time buyers – are still uncertain about the best time to plunge into the market.

“We tend to hand-hold these first time-buyers, nervous first-time buyers, especially around here where they know the prices are starting to dip – and who knows where they will continue to dip before the recovery starts?”

Mr. van der Wyst said that, especially in the current economic environment, he screens prospective buyers carefully before taking them to look at properties. He noted that the banks are also “pretty stringent” in qualifying consumers for mortgages.

“Interest rates are at historic lows and borrowing money is very, very affordable. If you have steady employment and you have some financial responsibility along with a good interest rate, now is a really, really good time to purchase a property,” said Mr. van der Wyst, an agent with Royal LePage.

“At this time, employment stability is very important. It would be really unfortunate to see someone lose their job just as they were about to close on a property,” he said.

A number of leading Canadian economists have observed that Canada's rising unemployment rate has eroded consumer confidence, and other recent housing forecasts have been less upbeat than the Royal Bank survey.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. projects that, in spite of falling prices, the volume of existing home sales is expected to drop by 14.6 per cent in 2009, and then rise by 9.3 per cent in 2010.

Average home prices are forecast to fall 5.2 per cent to $287,900 in 2009. Next year, prices are expected to remain flat, according to the federal housing agency's forecast.

Ms. Leggett said Royal Bank is not forecasting “a huge housing rebound, by any stretch,” but there are reasons for cautious optimism that the market will start to recover later this year and next year.

Following the overheated market and bidding wars of the past few years, housing is once again becoming more affordable and there are good buying opportunities for consumers “who have good solid certitude around their job prospects and have the financial picture to be able to get into the market,” Ms. Leggett said.

“Buying intentions are one thing. Whether they translate into actual purchases, obviously time will tell,” she said. “But, anecdotally, we are hearing that there is heightened activity …and interest in the marketplace overall.”

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

What's ahead for 2009...

Happy new year? I think so.

As someone who tends to look at the brighter side of life, I'm not so blindly optomistic that I deny the challenges the year ahead presents.

But I do have some predictions to share and some suggestions for the challenges.

When will the market bottom out?

Of course, this is everyone's biggest question. Here's the funny thing...by the time anyone has the information to call that the market has bottomed out, it's already on the rise, and usually so are interest rates.

Not to mention the crowd behind you that's also been waiting for it to bottom out. We need to stop thinking in these terms and instead look at value.

A big market correction has already happened and for the most part, sellers have adjusted to the current market. I think we may still see a few percentage points down in the coming months but mortgage rates may adjust the opposite way making it a wash in terms of the bottom line.

The value out there right now is great. I've had many buyers get great deals and encourage people to focus on overall value and finding the right home.


Today

Right now we are seeing some great opportunities:

- Mortgage rates are very low - i.e. TD Canada Trust posted variable closed rate of 4.3% and open rate of 4.5%.
- There are still a lot of highly motivated sellers out there who have already bought.
- It costs less to trade up in a down-turning market than a upward moving one.
- Inventory is good, people are adjusting to today's market and are open to negotaition.


Condos

These are good times if you are looking to get into a condo and/or new development. The oversupply and desperate developers are offering all kinds of incentives. Free parking, and evern free cars! But this is one area I would hold off on for a while to let their desperation set in a bit more.


Activity

The core GTA market should stay fairly stable with typical seasonality. I'm predicting some nice activity in the spring with some pent-up demand from buyers who have been holding their breath for the past few months. Personally I have been crazy busy with buyers as have some colleagues of mine so so we're starting to see this.


Motivation

Remember, financials are not the only reason why people buy and sell. Take me for example. I'm a sadistic person who loves to renovate over and over. Or there are clients who can now afford to get into the neighbourhoods they've always wanted to live in.

Relocations will also be up as companies shuffle the deck and our workforce travels for more opportunities. Whatever the reason, people are still motivated to move even in a shifting market.


Getting Creative

A really great way to trade up to a bigger home or to one in a better neighbourhood is to look for one where you can rent out a portion of the home for a while. If you already have enough equity or funds to put your down payment on a higher value home this is a great way to step up and sometimes even reduce your monthly costs.

My wife and I did this many years ago. Our monthly costs were only slightly higher when we made the move from a 2 bedroom, 650 sq. ft. condo north of the Beach to a detached bungalow just steps from Queen St. with a basement rental. It was a great way for us to 'trade up' and get in the area we wanted.


First-Time Buyers

Remember, a big correction has already happened and you can get amazing values combined with unbelievably low interest rates, not to mention good inventory. Don't wait for the herd to drive prices back up again and compete for the home you want.


Current Home Owners

For current home owners, everything is relative. You may sell for less but you'll also buy for less and the cost to move up to that home you've been dreaming of won't cost as much.


Sellers

Be patient and make sure you adjust to the market conditions. I know as well as anyone how frustrating it can be to have your house on the market for as long as it has been taking.

My daughter keeps wondering where all her christmas presents go when we have showings and my wife keeps telling me she is going on a cleaning strike for two months once the house sells.


We'll all get a little better.

The interesting thing about good times is that it's easy to stay in cruise control and still make progress maintaining the status quo.

In the real estate market, it meant that a lot of people jumped into the industry and were able to do a lot of business just by being order takers and sticking 'for sale' signs on your lawn. (Just watch how registrations drop and how many agents actually renew in the summer when fees are due.)

Now is when the good agents shine. Knowing and sharing market knowledge, providing value-add services, being strategic in everything you do, and investing time in life-long relationships. And the good ones will just get better.

This applies to every industry. For the most part, the cream rises to the top and a lot of people will work harder to stay there.

Overall it's an opportunity for clients to get what they deserve and more. And an opportunity for all of us to get better ourselves.

My wife says I'm still not perfect yet so I guess I have some work to do myself :)

Cheers and all the best for 2009,
Mark

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Beating the Winter Blahs

Anyone feeling the winter blahs yet?

After endless shovleing and scraping ice off everything, I know I can't be alone in wondering why I don't live in the Caribbean.

Here are a few quick and easy ideas to do inside and out of the house to lift your spirits.

Flowers
Your home may look like the Grinch came by the time you take down the tree and the decorations. Replace them with fresh flowers - preferably ones that remind you of spring, like tulips.

Hit the Gym
I know, you probably have this on your list anyway...but get the seratonin levels going. Because this blog is rated 'G', I won't get into details, but there are other physical activities you could be doing on a cold winters night for an even better effect...make the most of it!

Hot Yoga
It's true, I've done hot yoga. If you just want to feel the hot air on your skin and actually sweat instead of shiver from your environment, this is the activity for you. Not to mention the toxins from the holidays that you can get rid of at the same time! If you close your eyes and meditate you can actually pretend you are on a beach and someone is about to bring you a margarita any moment.

Get Out of the House
It's easy to take one look outside and turn back. Put your woolies on and get out to a museum, a bowling alley, and indoor driving range or tobogganing. Skating at Harbourfront Center is a blast, and hit the slopes for a great day of skiing or snowboarding. We're Canadian after all.

Tackle a Home Improvement Project
Maybe it's painting a room, or refinishing a lonely piece of furniture. Whatever your list includes, tackle it now.

Sign up for a Class
Is there something you've always wanted to learn? Kickboxing, art, music, cooking...whatever your hidden passion is, sign up for a regular class so you have something to get out to every week and connect with new people.

Help Others
If you're really feeling sorry for yourself, pull up your bootstraps and help someone in need. Nothing will lift your spirits faster. Shelters and food banks are especially in need this time of year. Call and volunteer or start your own campaign to collect food and blankets.

If none of these things work, just think of the excitement that buying a new home will bring :)

Cheers,
Mark

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

The Best Time of the Year

Despite the economy, I'm looking forward to the holidays. I hope you are too.

If you're like me, you might be getting a little tired of all the negativity in the media. This month I'm going to cut through that negativity and show you something positive...

The real estate market.

Here's why...

#1 - It costs you LESS to trade up in this market.

For those of you who currently own and are considering a move, you may be getting a lot of advice that you shouldn't trade up now because you'll take too much of a hit in the transaction as your home has dropped too much in value.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Everything in the market is relative, and it's actually the best time to move up.

Let's compare if you sold and bought six months ago vs. selling and buying today in a market that has dropped approx. 10%.

*May 2008, peak average price over the past two years vs. current stats for November 2008 for the City of Toronto.

Scenario 1 - Peak Market at 10% higher than today.

Sale Price: $543,000 Purchase Price: $760,000

Difference: $217,000

Scenario 2 - Same House, Depressed Market 10% lower than peak.

Sale Price: $488,000, Purchase Price: $683,000

Difference: $195,000

The difference to move to a new home costs you LESS in a downward turning market than in a peak market.

#2 - There is a small window of amazing opportunity in the market shift.

There are a lot of people who bought a few months ago before their home had sold. In the peak market that was a safe strategy. But now you have homeowners who HAVE to sell because they are near or past their close date and are carrying two mortgages.

This situation will not exist in the spring market because people will no longer be purchasing before they sell.

There is a lot of opportunity to get a great deal and negotiate with vendors who have no choice but to sell right now and this window will only exist for a couple of months.

#3 - Mortgage rates are incredible right now.

At the peak of the market in May, the prime rate was hanging around 4.75%. Now, the rate has just dropped to an amazing 3.5%. The posted 5 Year Closed rate for TD Canada Trust is only prime + 0.60%

Let's take a $300,000 mortgage as an example.

At the peak market, with a 25 year amortization, your payment at a rate of 5.35% would be $1,805.07 per month with a total interest cost of $241,484.

At today's market rate, your monthly payment would be $1,594.37 at a rate of 4.1% with a total interest cost of only $178,290.

Your total interest cost would be reduced by 7% over the course of 5-years.

#4 - Homes are now within reach for first-time home buyers.

The cumulative affect of lower home prices and great mortgage rates make this an amazing time for first-time home buyers.

Not to mention the higher inventory and less competition for great homes.

A 10% drop in prices translates to a 10% lower mortgage amount, so a monthly payment would be $159.44 less than in the peak market.

If you are a first-time home buyer, the real estate market is on your side for once. This is the time to make your move.

There are other considerations to think about in this market...

How can I sell my home in this market?

Pricing strategy has never been so critical.

If you are buying another home, you need to stop focusing on the magic number you could have gotten back in May. Those days are gone. Realize that you are making up for it on your buy-side.

First, your home has to be priced at value and that requires a very thorough analysis of recently sold homes and available listings within the past week and days, not just the past months.

In a changing market, historical numbers can mean nothing when pricing a home for sale today. And you have to open to staying ahead of the market activity and adjust as necessary.

Pricing above value because you think you want to leave room for negotiation is not an option. Better to turn down 3 offers than get none at all because no one will even look at an overpriced house in this market.

Other strategies to follow...

If you are considering a move in this market, I'm advising clients to follow these strategies:

1. Sell your home first before you buy, or make your offer conditional on the sale of your home. Unless of course you are fine with two mortgages.

2. Make sure your home shows incredibly well and consider having an inspection done before you put it on the market just as you would in a peak market. Do not give buyers any excuse to put in a low-ball offer or negotiate based on an inspection after their original offer.

3. If possible for both parties, try to stretch out your close date so you have plenty of time to shop for your new home.

4. Be prepared to buy just as you would in a peak market. Get your financing approved BEFORE you look at homes or put in an offer. Be ready to put a certified deposit with your offer. Even though the market has slowed down, there are still other buyers who may be looking for the same home.

5. Play it smart. The reality is that we are in tough economic times. Live within your means and consider your complete financial picture when you invest in real estate. At the end of the day, it's a solid investment that for most of us means a roof over our heads, not a statement in the mail.

The Irony

Think of the phenomenon of 'herd mentality'. We are really causing our own grief in some ways here.

Ironically, when prices are at their highest and there is the most competition for a home, people can't wait to buy and will throw thousands of dollars over the asking price just to get a home.

Now, when the market is in the favour of buyers and there is tremendous value and selection out there AND it actually costs less to trade up for current homeowners, everyone is holding their breath.

Another irony is that a lot of buyers are waiting for the market to bottom out. But no one has a crystal ball and we can't predict when that will be.

By the time it's announced that the market has bottomed out, it's already on it's way up again and all the pent up buyers who were holding off for a better deal are now in competition with each other, driving prices up.

In Summary...

I am personally excited about this market.

My clients get the opportunity to:

- Move to a better home for less

- Get amazing deals given the unique conditions of the current shift

- Take advantage of incredible financing rates

- Realize their goal of home ownership if they are first-time home buyers

I hope you forward this on to as many people as you can, if for no other reason than my determination to dispell the myths and negativity in the media that's causing a lot of people to miss out.

To find out what opportunities are in the real estate market for you, and to find out about some amazing deals, contact me today.

And if anyone tells you this is a bad time in the real estate market, tell them to call me directly :)

Best wishes for the holiday season!

Cheers,

Mark

416.728.2499 - info@markrichards.ca

Monday, December 8, 2008

Ideas for the Gift Challenged

For those of you who may need a bit of inspiration and ideas for the holiday gift giving season, we've put together a list that may just work for you.

Framed Pictures








We rarely do this for ourselves, so how great is it when someone gives you a blown-up framed photo of you, your friends or family?

It seems like it takes some time but one evening picking out favorites, a quick online print order and in-store pick up to grab some frames and you're done.

Cost? $10-30 for a frame, $0.23 - $15 for printing depending on size. Ikea has great frames with mats included starting at $6.99 for a 4x6 size.


In-Name Donations

Considering how many people in the world are less fortunate than us, sometimes the big ticket items don't sit quite right. There are some great ways to make a donation in someone's name - from donating dollars, to choosing specific items to donate.




You can donate a mosquito net through the Red Cross for just $7 and save a child from malaria.

The Red Cross - Malaria Bites







Or you can check out Canada Helps - it enables online donations for 83,000 Canadian charities. It allows you to search by interest, city and name to find the one that fits the people on your list.

Canada Helps


Shows

In a city like Toronto, there are so many great shows, concerts and events that the choices are endless.

Don't forget that many afternoon shows can be less than half the cost and it's great to have dinner afterwards instead of before and rushing to an evening show.











We saw We Will Rock You with the in-laws this past summer and we all had a blast. For a family show, you can see Chitty Chitty Bang Bang or The Sound of Music. Tickets for both shows can be purchased online at Mirvish Productions and you can get deals from just $24 a ticket.


Books & Magazines

Who isn't looking for a good page-turner? The best thing of all is they can exchange your choice if they've already read it or if it isn't their cup of tea.

Magazine subscriptions are also a great gift with big impact for not much money. Deals can be had for just $12 a year. Rogers offers it's customers a $1 per month subscription for most of it's magazines - check out Rogers Magazines.

For book ideas check out the following reviews:




New York Times 10 Best Books of 2008







Chapters Top Online Bestsellers



Create a Book







If you have a bunch of photos from a vacation or party, or just a lot of photos in general you can create a professional looking book with Blurb. You can get it produced and delivered by Christmas (choose your delivery options carefully!) and books start at just $12.95!


For Those Who Help You

For the postman, the dog walker, the babysitter etc...keep a stack of Starbucks or Tim Hortons gift cards on hand! Who doesn't want to be warmed up with an eggnog latte or a double-double?


Regardless of what you are giving, make a list, check it twice and set aside some time to shop to save yourself from the stress of the holiday season.

Cheers & Happy Holidays!
Mark

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Slash Thousands Off Your Mortgage

This month, I’m sharing highlights from a recent article in Canadian Real Estate Magazine. With concerns about the economy, make the most of your investment and get ahead. Don’t take your mortgage for granted by using the following tips…

Skip the Honeymoon

Be careful of introductory offers such as low rates that reset to higher ones after a few years and cash-back offers and incentives that come with a higher interest rate. Short term gain for long term pain!

Time is Money

The best strategy for paying less interest is paying your loan as fast as you can. Most mortgages allow you to pay a lump sum of up to 25% of the original mortgage each year.

Also at each renewal the mortgage becomes an open loan, which means you can repay as much as you want without restrictions or penalties.

More Frequent Payments

In case you don’t win the lottery or find yourself with a large lump sum to put down on your mortgage, just make your payments weekly. It’s a small cash flow difference but it will save thousands on your mortgage.

With a $300,000 mortgage at 5% over 25 years, you can be mortgage-free four and half years faster and save $37,947 by simply making your payments on a weekly basis versus on a monthly basis.

Hit the Principal Early

Most mortgages allow you to pay an amount up to or equal to your regular payments that can go straight to the principal.

Switch Lenders

Shop around at renewal time but consider costs before you switch, such as appraisal fees ($150-$350), discharge statement fee ($150-$300), and legal fees ($600-$1,500).

It is well worth the effort to shop around. Half a point on a $300,000 mortgage can mean over $18,000 in interest savings.

Forgo Minor Luxuries

Consider this: A typical day of food purchases adds up: coffee and snack ($5), lunch ($12), drinks after work ($8) = $35 a day.

If you ‘bagged’ lunch and made coffee at home, assuming a savings of $20 a day x 20 days a month, you would have an extra $500 a month to put towards your mortgage.

Assuming a mortgage of $300,000 at 5% you could save $68,777 in interest and be mortgage free 9 years sooner!

In Summary

Don't take your one of your biggest investments for granted. Take a look at your mortgage today and get the most savings possible!


For more information on how you can save money on your mortgage, contact me at info@markrichards.ca or give me a call at 416.690.2181.

Market Watch - Summer Slump or the New Reality?

Although we always expect a summer slow down, many people are trying to figure out how much of it is actually the market correcting itself.

The Globe and Mail had a great market report last Friday that I'd like to share with you for some perspective...

By CAROLYN IRELAND - From Friday's Globe and Mail

August 8, 2008 at 12:00 AM EDT

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. agent Michael O'Brien is seeing houses sit on the market for two or three weeks these days. In 2007, very few houses lasted a week.

"Mind you, last year was probably a once-in-40-years kind of market," he says.

The number crunchers bear that out: Toronto's lethargic spring real estate market settled into a true summer slump in July as sales fell 12 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area.

The number of houses and condominiums that changed hands in the resale market dropped to 7,806 last month, compared with the 8,912 transactions recorded in the same month last year, according to figures released this week by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Prices, meanwhile, remained stable. Throughout the GTA, the average price came in at $371,427 to mark an improvement of slightly more than 1 per cent from the average price of $366,012 realized in July, 2007.

In the city of Toronto, the average price was tallied at $395,342 in July to stay virtually flat, with the average price of $395,044 recorded in July, 2007.

TREB president Maureen O'Neill points out that July, 2007, was the best July ever recorded, when sales jumped an eye-popping 26 per cent over the year-earlier tally.

For the year-to-date, sales in the GTA have declined 14 per cent from the figure this time last year.

Mr. O'Brien says Toronto's real estate market is still healthy — especially compared with cities south of the border.

"Most of North America would kill to have our real estate market."

The agent, who does a lot of his business in downtown neighbourhoods such as Cabbagetown and Leslieville, says listings are reasonably plentiful, but there's no big flood of houses onto the market.

Some clients are holding off listing until the fall, the agent says, but he is advising people who want to sell to put their houses on the market because no one can predict how the fall market will shape up.

The federal government has announced reforms aimed at avoiding a U.S.-style housing price bubble. Starting Oct. 15, the Finance Department will stop guaranteeing 40-year mortgages and mortgage loans with no down payment.

Mr. O'Brien says the new rules are bound to take some potential buyers out of the market — particularly at the lower end.

At the other end of the price spectrum, he says houses listed at $2-million and above are sitting on the market longer because luxury properties are purely a discretionary purchase.

"The high end is pretty darned slow," he says. "Whenever there is a bit of economic uncertainty, the high end slows first."

Mr. O'Brien says that setting the right asking price for a property is crucial this year because many houses are not attracting multiple offers.

Last year, agents were often trying to create competition for houses by setting low asking prices and then holding offers on a specific day. About 95 per cent of them were sold on the offer night at a price far above asking, he says.

"We could underprice it considerably and the market would correct it."

This year that strategy is risky, Mr. O'Brien says. He advises sellers to list at a price they would be willing to accept or use as a starting point for negotiations with a prospective buyer.

Geon Van der Wyst, an agent with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., says buyers are cautious because they see the poor economic environment in the United States and wonder how much of the bad news will spill over into Canada.

"I like to counteract that when buyers have that mentality by saying that I still think the Canadian market is very healthy."

Mr. Van der Wyst points out that price gains in Toronto have been pretty steady over the past seven years, compared with the sudden spikes recorded in Vancouver and Calgary. Toronto's more moderate pace of growth means the market is not as susceptible to a sudden plunge, he believes.

Houses in the central core of Toronto are being bought quite quickly when sellers are not unrealistic in their asking price, Mr. Van der Wyst adds.

"I think some people are just a little bit more greedy than they should realistically be."

Across the GTA, the average price on the market has increased to 33 days from 31 days a year ago, TREB reports. Earlier this week, there were 26,543 active listings, which is a 28-per-cent increase from a year ago.